Emmanuel Todd is a French demographer and sociologist who theorized the fall of the Soviet Empire in 1976 on the basis of the deterioration of the statistics on life expectancy and infant mortality.
Todd has published three books with long-term analysis. He claims the of superiority of demography over the economy for long term predictions. He has just published a book that focuses on Europe’s decline: the fall of the West.
In 2002, he published a similar work: After the Empire, which noted similar points concerning the United States. He predicted that Europe and Russia would get closer politically to avoid similar worsening of life expectancy.
It is difficult to predict anything in geopolitics. In the 21 years since this book was published, the surprise is that Europe and Japan have aligned even more to the US.
The myth of universal terrorism, the threat of democracy
From Peru to Sudan, from Afghanistan to Serbia, the United States was there to protect you from communism, they will now protect you from the threat of radical Islam.
There is a Cultural Revolution there: when literacy goes from 20% to 60%, violent political movements often accompany these changes.
The demographic transition is not far away, but before that, a young population is a source of instability and political violence
Todd predicts instability for Saudi Arabia and Pakistan
We can hope again for a democratic normalization following a possibly hysterical and violent transition
Imperium or Hegemon?
The United States controls the reserve currency. This implies a structural deficit so that other countries can constitute reservations.
We are witnessing the destruction of the American industrial capacity since 1945, and the hypertrophy of the tertiary sector.
An army is maintained to guarantee access to primary and secondary sector of other countries around the world.
Inequalities increase with the dividends of peace.
"But if we have to use force, it is because we are America; we are the indispensable nation. We stand tall and we see further than other countries into the future"
- Madeleine Albright speaking on NBC in 1998.
The fragility of the tribute
America no longer produces, imports have been increasing since 1997.
Is it an Athenian or Roman model? Hegemony in the Delian League is fully exposed when the voluntary contribution shipment to Delos become a tribute required under threat by Athens.
Roman imperial model: the accumulation of wealth leads to inequality and the transition of the Republic to the Empire. The population is split into a patrician elite and a parasitic pleb of pure consumer that do not produce anything: "panem et circenses".
The military budget is reduced by 30% following the end of the Soviet Union between 1991 and 1998. From 1999 and therefore before September 11. The Bush government decides to increase its military budget massively.
According to Keynes, two fears of the investor, are: 1) lose everything, 2) do not invest with sufficient return.
Consumption is offset by investment flows. US stocks and bonds are alternately the darling of foreign investors.
Confront the Strong or attack the Weak?
The 3 axes of decadence: ideology, economy, military
Ideology: while Anglo-Saxon anthropologists were recognized for their tolerance of different mores in the 19th century, and this culminates with Evans-Pritchard in the 1930s, the American NGOs have become frenzied feminists who are to distribute good points to matriarchal societies in Africa and to demand
women quotas as the priority for Afghan State-building. The United States has lost its universalism and impose an ultra-feminist agenda that does not correspond to other cultures.
Economy: The book is written before shale oil. A peak in conventional production in America is clear. The oil supply of the Middle East is essential for Europe and Japan, less for the United States, which nevertheless is very present on this theater because the military of Muslim countries are weak.
Military: The weakness of American ground troops is known. Americans only fight with air superiority. America only fights minor powers such as Iraq, Iran, by insisting that the world is a dangerous place and that it needs the United States to police it.
These three aspects lead the United States to always attack Muslim countries: by ideology, by obsession for oil, and because it is so easy to get military superiority in the region.
The Bzrezinski plan which consisted in isolating Russia to take Ukraine gets loses focus by refusing normalization with Iran and China. There is no American strategic thinking, politics follows the line of steepest gradient like a big rock that rolls down uncontrolled and crushes things.
Instead of being a Bismarck who isolates France diplomatically, which is seen by all the others as a revenge, the State Dept behaves like a Guillaume II: Russia, Iran, China are all three attacked, and form a anti-hegemonic coalition.
The return of Russia
Russia is a still violent country, with a murder rate at 23 and a high suicide rate as well.
Baltic republics have an authoritarian family structure, Latvia was more Bolshevik than Russia and had provided most of its secret services.
Russia is fundamentally egalitarianism and universalistic. The United States (s) is annoyed by what the French think that a Palestinian life is worth as much as an Israeli, the Russians have egalitarian family structures, with an authority of the father without question, which has enabled totalitarianism.
The Ukrainians are more conservative than the Russians. They showed nationalism and anti-Semitism in 1918. America has little to offer to Ukraine, which mainly trade with Europe and Russia.
Russia is in demographic fall, but the country is recovering economically.
Russia wants to open to Europeans, playing on the complementarity of Russian natural resources and European industry.
Europe and Japan
According to Todd, Germany becomes independent of the United States, the Franco-German couple, dysfunctional in 1990-2001, becomes active after the euro.
Britain is always closer to the United States, but should reorient itself to Europe.
Japan and Germany are more economically effective, as less short-term and ultra-liberal than Americans.
The United States has a history limited to 300 years during which a small population colonized an immense territory while Europeans and Asians have a millennial experience of life at the Malthusian limit.
Americans have an infinite vision of the world and are still looking for a new territory and new population to exploit.
Conclusion
The USA is decaying because it no longer has an industry. This is a consequence of the Triffin paradox.
The USA launch performative military operations to convince everyone that they are still the indispensable nation. They attack weak countries and target Muslims.
Europe and Japan are the two industrial powers in the world, Russia is waking up and can provide raw materials.
China is not yet an independent player, according to Todd in 2003.
In Latin America, Brazil can hope to play a preponderant role in the future. It is still far away.
Todd is a demographer. He claims to have strong family ties to England and the United States.
His analysis is optimistic about the long-term for Third World countries, which he considers on the right track, despite a potential for transient hysterical violent phase following their mass alphabetization.
Todd is an ideological bridge between France and the Anglo-Saxon world, as he is one of the few french intellectual reading English. He opposes the neoconservatives who intend to impose American values to the World.
In a recent interview, he describes Robert Kagan, a neo-cons scholar linked to Victoria Nuland, head of foreign affairs for Eastern Europe, as "dripping with contempt" towards the weakness of Europeans.
Todd’s opinion on neo-cons was already formed in 2002 on the basis of the Bush discourse of the axis of evil and the bombing of Serbia out of the UN framework. This is before the lessons of the war in Afghanistan, the Second War in Iraq, and the intervention in Libya, Syria and Yemen could be drawn.
References:
Wealth of Nations, Adam Smith
Rogue States, Noam Chomsy
Jihad vs McWorld, Benjamin Barber
The Clash of Civilizations, Samuel;Huntington
The End of History, Francis Fukuyama
The Paradox of American Power, Joseph Nye
The Next American Nation, Michael Lind
The Rise of Meritocracy, Michael Young
Globalization and its discontents, Joseph Sitgliz
The Advantage of Nations, Michael Porter
The Economics of Empire, William Finnegan